First round predictions part 1: Who will be the beast of the east?

Originally published in the Miami edition of The Examiner


Cleveland (1) vs. Detroit (8)

Alright, let’s give the team with the best record in the league the respect they deserve, and start things off with them. It’s funny how times change and roles are reversed. A couple years back, when Lebron was struggling to get past Detroit, the media jumped at the opportunity to compare his difficulties with Detroit to what Jordan faced with the Bad Boy Pistons of the late 80‘s and early 90’s. Such a comparison was an easy one to make, but far from accurate as the 80’s Pistons makes any subsequent Detroit team look fairly mild mannered.

This Detroit team bears no resemblance to anything even slightly intimidating. While everyone keeps saying that this Pistons team is looking to the future, I still don’t see how that justifies the Billups deal. Since the Pistons were looking to clear salary, why not trade Hamilton instead and keep Stuckey as a shooting guard. I don’t see how a Billups/Stuckey back court isn’t ten times better than anything involving Iverson/Hamilton/Stuckey. The obvious reason is that Stuckey plays more like a shooting guard than a natural point guard.

You also can’t undervalue the importance of Chauncey’s leadership, clearly demonstrated in the way he transformed the Nuggets from a team with about as much chemistry as a sober Real World cast, into the second seed in the West. While I do think this same Pistons team with Billups instead of Hamilton would have fared better during the regular season and probably gotten a higher seed, against Cleveland it wouldn’t really matter either way. So I guess this whole paragraph isn’t exactly relevant to picking the winner of this series. Whatever. You’re welcome.

I think Lebron still has respect for the Pistons (even if it’s is simply from memory and has nothing to do with this current squad), and won’t look past the first round like some top seeds have in the past (I’m looking at you Boston). Respect aside, Lebron will also probably want to crush Detroit in four games, simply to exact revenge on the Pistons one last time for cutting his postseason short a couple years back. I don’ t see the Pistons winning any games in Cleveland, but I can imagine Lebron locking up Stuckey in the last couple minutes of a close game in Detroit, grabbing a road win, and in turn breaking what’s left of Detroit’s spirit.



Final verdict:

Cavs in 5.



Boston (2) vs. Chicago (7)

A series that would be fairly predictable if Boston was anywhere near injury-fee, now becomes a bit more uncertain with the announcement that KG will not only miss this series, but likely the entire postseason as well. From a neutral perspective it’s a shame that KG is injured. He is a captivating presence on the court and raises the intensity level of any series. It’s also particularly disappointing because he actually gives the Celtics a legitimate shot of beating the Cavs and Lakers.

Unfortunately for Boston, not only do they have to play without their vocal leader and former defensive player of the year, they have to do so against arguably the hottest team in the league. Coming into the playoffs, the Bulls have won 9 of their last 12 games behind Derrick Rose’s steady play. The mid season pickup of John Salmons and Brad Miller has been very significant after losing Luol Deng to injury.

(Random thought: If the rumors are true, and Miami did have a chance to land Brad Miller and John Salmons instead of Jermaine O’neal, then I’m not sure Riles made the best decision. Salmons is a proven 20-point scorer, and considering Miami’s offensive woes, I think he could have gone a long way in alleviating some of the offensive weight on Wade’s shoulders. The counter argument is that O’neal’s contract conveniently expires in the all important summer of 2010 (unlike Salmon’s that expires in 2011), which many say, combined with the first round pick from Toronto, was the deciding factor. Fair enough Riley, you want to go after the big names like everyone else.

However, the deal really wouldn’t have hurt Miami that much financially. In fact, had the Heat made the deal, they still would have had Brad Miller ($11.3 million) come off the cap in 2010, while only having to pay Salmons ($6 million) in 2011. That’s Udonis Haslem’s salary. Considering that with Bealsey’s recent emergence, Haslem has somewhat expendable (and many, myself included, would ideally like to see Haslem traded for a quality small forward), I just think acquiring Salmons and Miller would have been a smart choice. Plus it’s not exactly like Jermaine “5-rebounds-a-game” O’neal has been anything close to a dominant inside presence. Oh well, at least Jermaine is scheduled to work with Tim Grover (the man who got Wade into the best shape of his life this past summer), so there’s always the possibility of a miraculous rejuvenation. Just don’t hold your breath.)

Anyway, where was I? Ah yes, the Bulls-Celtics series. I think that while this series seems to have some upset potential, ultimately I see the Celtics holding off this young Bulls team. Part of the reason is that the Celtics have Rajon Rondo, arguably the best defensive point guard in the league right now, to guard Derrick Rose, the catalyst of the Bull’s offense. You had a good run Chicago, and your future is definitely bright, but this is where it ends. It’ll be an interesting series though, one that I’ll make a priority to watch.


Final verdict:

Celtics in 7.




Orlando (3) vs. Philadelphia (6)

The Magic have been an enigma of late. One night they’re dismantling the Cavs, the next week they’re losing crucial games that ultimately gave the second seed to Boston. These playoffs are going to go a long way in how the Magic will be perceived. The team and its fans always seem to believe that they don’t get enough respect from the media and pundits alike. It seems that they are usually regarded as the best team outside of the Celtics, Cavs, and Lakers; just not on that same level the top three. The Magic may have a point. Here’ their chance to change that. They should be able to comfortably win this first round series against the Sixers, and assuming that Boston gets past Chicago, they will be facing a KG-less Celtics team in the second round. At that point it’s very simple, they have to beat the Celtics. Period. If they can’t win that series, I don’t want to hear or read any comments next year about them not getting the proper respect next year, even if they have the best record in the league. So Orlando, it’s on you.

The thing that would worry me if I were a Magic fan, is their lack of a dominant go to guy. At this point Magic fans are probably yelling “ What about DWIGHT HOWARD?!!” at their computers, but I still don’t put him in that category. Let me explain.

Has Howard had dominant performances? Sure.
Is he a load to handle inside? Of course.
But can he carry a team on his back down the stretch of a close game? I don’t think so.

And that is what he will have to do in the playoffs. Smart teams like the Celtics aren’t going to double team him and give open three-point shots to there marksmen. They’re going to single cover him and say “alright, let’s see what you can do.” I’ve seen Detroit do this to them successfully in years past, and teams will continue to do so until he becomes unguardable one on one, and demands the ball every time down the court in a close game like Shaq did.

That is why right now Hedo Turkoglu tends to take the role of closer. He has the size and handle to be a tough cover towards the end of games. The thing that we still don’t know is how healthy his ankle is. If he’s not a hundred percent, it’s going to be even tougher to win close games.

I mention this now, although I’m sure Orlando will look great against the Sixers. Howard won’t have to work defensively against any of the Sixer big men, and the Magic will simply out-shoot them from three.

The Sixers do have an advantage at point guard though, and if they are able to dictate the tempo, then I could see them keeping it close in a couple games.


Final verdict:

Magic in 5



Atlanta (4) vs. Miami (5)

Yeah, I saved the best one for last. Well probably not the “best” one if you want to be annoyingly technical, but certainly the series I’ll be pressing the closest attention to. First off, from a fan’s perspective I think it’s great to see the Heat back in the playoffs at all after last year’s astonishingly terrible performance.

While everyone associated with the Heat must be relieved that they have avoided a first round match up against a division winner, let us keep in mind that Atlanta will not be a walk in the park either. This Hawks team played last year’s eventual champions, the Boston Celtics, about as well as anyone did, taking them to seven games. It’s a team that tends to give the Heat a bit of trouble too.

Wade has been held to 21 points in two of the three games against the Hawks this year and their athletic big men seem to give Beasley and O’neal a bit of trouble. There confidence is also running high after last year’s unexpected success and with home court secured for the first round, I’m sure that they’ll be expecting at least a second round appearance. This series will be a close one, probably going the whole seven games. The Heat are so reliant on its young players that I’m sure this series will mimic their regular season performances. There will be games where they are firing on all cylinders and look dominant (most likely the home games), and games where they can’t get anything going and lose by double digits.

Overall, I think that Miami has two things going for them that both involve Diddy’s favorite model:

1. The recent schedule has been kind to Miami. Because they were able to secure the fifth seed with two games in hand, Dwyane Wade will have had a full week of rest before game one. On top of that, Miami has a couple extra days off in between games. Game one is on Sunday, game two on Wednesday, and then game three is back in Miami on Saturday. These days off gives Wade the best chance to remain fresh, and in turn drastically improves the Heat’s chances in this series.

2. Mr. Wade seems to be in the perfect mindset. In an interview with Stephen A. Smith, Wade mentioned that he plays far better when he is angry and has a chip on his shoulder. Judging by his recent comments that he believes everyone is doubting his team, it’s safe to say that same chip will be Shaq-sized by the time the series begins.

The only thing that gives me cause for concern is Spoelstra and his respect/admiration/fear for team captain, Udonis Haslem. (Well not really fear, but still). Healthy or not, there is no way Haslem should start ahead of Beasley. There’s rumors that Beasley might start at the small forward spot, and that shouldn’t happen either, because then Wade would have to expend precious energy defending Joe Johnson. The only starting lineup that makes sense at this point is: Chalmers, Wade, Moon/Diawara, Beasley, and O’neal. However knowing Spoelstra, I expect him to try Beasley off the bench in the first two games (both of which will likely result in losses) and then MAYBE try starting Beasley in game three. You heard it here first.

Everything considered, I think Dwyane Wade’s experience and clutchness will push Miami over the edge.

Final verdict:

Heat in 7.


Check back soon for my preview of the Western conference. Oh, and while I’m here, my pick for the Finals is Cavs over Lakers in 7. That is all. For now.