First round picks part two: Who will be left in the West?

Originally published in the Miami edition of The Examiner.


Los Angeles (1) vs. Utah (8)

Potentially interesting series here. While the Lakers seem to be superior to the rest of the West, Utah is a strong eighth seed. I’ve heard some analysts make the case for Utah giving L.A. some problems by pointing to the fact that Utah has already beaten L.A. once this year, and that Kirlenko’s length can bother Kobe.

The case for Kirlenko as Kobe-stopper (or even just Kobe-nuisance) is mostly based on their last game in which he held Kobe to 16 points. Yeah…okay. Any subscribers to this theory must have a pretty serious case of selective memory to disregard the fact that Kobe has also torched the Jazz for 37 and 40 points in the two other contests.
Nevertheless, I think most people agree that Utah has too much talent to be such a low seed. Given how up for grabs the West has been, a couple months back I would have put money on the Jazz sneaking into the second seed, instead, they barely qualified for the playoffs. I guess that’s what happens when you can’t defend anyone.

In a way, this Jazz team reminds me a lot of the so-near-yet-so-far Phoenix teams from a couple seasons back. Deron Williams now, like Steve Nash then, is clearly the leader, best player, and closer on the team. A healthy Carlos Boozer, much like a healthy Amare Stoudamire, is a potent offensive weapon, but a mediocre defender. Plus you can’t forget Ronnie Brewer playing the part of defensive stopper (Raja Bell) and Kirlenko playing the role of the extremely versatile, yet just as moody small forward (Shawn Marion).

Utah definitely has to make some moves this summer. If anything, they should learn from the mistakes the Suns have made and act prudently, rather than reverting a last ditch effort, when the team was already on the decline. I’d say they should let the injury-prone Boozer leave and use the space to resign the more aggressive, better defender in Paul Millsap. Beyond that, Kirlenko’s contract is pretty crippling and I don’t really see them getting a better option at center than Okur for now. I feel like this team is one move away. Give them a legit shot-blocking, defensive center (think a Samuel Dalembert-type) and a dynamic shooting guard or small forward who can create his own shot (see: Rudy Gay) and this team would be very, very dangerous.

I’m looking to the future for this Jazz team because let’s be honest, it’s definitely not happening for them this year. Although they play the Lakers probably as well as any of the other Western teams do (which really isn’t saying much), I don’t see this series going past five, maybe six games. The Lakers length up front tends to give Boozer and Millsap headaches, and really the only advantage the Jazz have is at the point guard position. So unless Deron goes into Magic Johnson mode, the writing is more or less on the wall.

Final verdict:

Lakers in 6.





Denver (2) vs. New Orleans (7)

Probably the Western conference series I am most excited for. While on paper it’s a second seed versus a seventh seed, because the records of the teams from two through eight were so close, in reality this series will be as competitive as a fourth seed against a fifth seed. I see upset potential all over this one.

The point guard battle will be intense with two of the best in the league in Chris Paul and Chauncey Billups going at it. This will be the key to this series. While no one can keep up with the lightning-quick Paul, Billups does have a size and strength advantage in his favor and is generally seen as a solid defensive point guard.

While it will be a fascinating battle of wills, it is a match up that I will ultimately be dominated by Paul. This 32-year-old version of Billups is not the same defensive presence he was five years ago when he led Detroit to a championship. I saw Paul demolish an over the hill Jason Kidd last year, and even if it’s not to the same extent, I’m expecting more of the same this year. Old point guards are like old boxers, the last thing they want is to go against a guy nearly a decade younger and three steps quicker.

Furthermore, I think we will see the true value of James Posey in this series, as he will be able to defend Carmelo Anthony or J.R. Smith effectively. At the same time, I don’t think the Nuggets will be able to contain David West, who seems to be one those players that kick it up a notch when playoff time rolls around.

Outside of Billups and Kenyon Martin, none of these Denver players have entered a series as favorites. Playing with higher expectations is a different ball game and some players simply crack under the pressure (*cough* Eddie Jones. Yeah, I said it). I’m not saying the Nuggets will or won’t, but either way, they will be going against an experienced Hornets team that has been there before and clearly thrives in such situations.

Final verdict:

Hornets in 6.





San Antonio (3) vs. Dallas (6)
Doesn’t it seem like one way or another, every year the Spurs and Mavs end up playing each other in the playoffs? Luckily, because these teams know each other so well, the games have generally been highly competitive and have provided their fair share of buzzer beating finishes. Although the Spurs seem to be showing signs of age throughout, and Ginobli’s absence will surely be felt, I can’t ever rule out the Spurs on an odd numbered year.

Maybe I have too much faith in Popovich’s game planning and Duncan’s ability to come through in the biggest moments, but I find it really difficult to ever pick against them, especially in the first round. I think Roger Mason will pick up some of the offensive slack with Manu out, especially when considering the fact that he has already had two games against Dallas this year when he’s scored over 20 points (23 and 25).

One more thing: I read somewhere that Spurs rookie George Hill has not made Popovich’s playoff rotation, which I think is a shame. Obviously, Pop has seen him play far more up close and frequently than I have, but based on the games I have seen him in (including a game against the Heat, which I had really good tickets for), I would not at all be surprised if at some point in the next few year, he will be considered a top 10 point guard. He has a ridiculous wingspan; seems to be a really quick-footed, solid defender; and already has a pretty decent jump shot. If that sounds a lot like Rajon Rondo (minus the part about having a solid jump shot), then you see where I’m going with this.

Popovich’s eye for talent is amazing, as his “diamond in the rough” draft choices seem to hit far more often than they miss. Greg Popovich, take a bow son. The Miami Heat Examiner salutes you. Alright, now sit down.
Where were we? Oh, right.

Final verdict:

Spurs in 7





Portland (4) vs. Houston (5)

I’m not going to lie, since the playoff match ups were finalized I’ve gone back and forth on picking the winner for this series about a half dozen times already. Thankfully the playoffs start tomorrow or I’d probably end up rewriting this paragraph a couple more times.

This is one of those series where there are so many unknown variables:
How will Portland’s young players react to the playoff atmosphere?
Will Oden hurt himself in the lay up line?
Will Ron Artest go Ron Artest on someone?
Who will Houston go to at the end of games?
Will Yao Ming ever flagrant foul someone that tries to dunk on him? (Not really relevant to this series, but come on man! Don’t let people treat you’re like a 7’6’’dunk prop)

So many questions and I wish knew the answers. There are a lot of things to like about Houston. For starters I think they’re arguably the best defensive team in the league. You know Brandon Roy can’t be too overjoyed about the idea of playing potentially seven games against Shane Battier and Ron Artest. They have solid, if not great, players at almost every position (point guard is still “eh”). Their center is also their best free throw shooter, meaning they don’t have to worry about teams intentionally fouling him instead of giving up a high percentage look. At the same time, their lack of a dominant perimeter scorer at the end of games worries me. If Artest really is that guy, then I don’t see this team going too far.

On the other hand, Portland is one of the most tantalizing teams talent-wise. They have so many different looks they can throw at you, and a handful of players that could each go off for 20-30 points on any given night. More importantly though, they have that go-to-guy at the end of games, and that’s what separates these two teams. With the game on the line, I’d feel far more confident as a Blazers fan knowing that Brandon Roy can turn even a terrible look into a game winner. Which is why…

Final verdict:

Blazers in 7






Thanks for reading. I enjoy receiving all feedback, and if you think your picks will prove to be more accurate than mine, then feel free to leave a comment with your predictions. Should be interesting. Also, check back frequently as I will be writing columns throughout the playoffs including my picks for the next round as soon as those match ups are set. Till next time.