Reflections on an abysmal start to the Heat-Hawks series

Originally published in the Miami edition of the Examiner.

The good news:

• Everything considered, the game one performance was probably as bad as it can get, so there’s really nowhere to go, but up. I don’t imagine too many other occasions when Wade will not break 20 points and have more turnovers (8), than assists (5).
• Hopefully this was the game that this young Heat team needed to get its playoff jitters out of its system.
• There’s still a chance that the Heat will bounce back in game two and steal home court advantage. As demoralizing as this loss was, at least it came on the road, where the Heat weren’t expected to win anyway.
• James Jones actually looked like he was playing in rhythm for the first time in a while. Against a Hawks team that likes to pack the paint, his three-point shooting will be vital.

The bad news:

• Jermaine O’Neal. It was worrisome how ineffective he was. It wouldn’t be as ominous had he played well in other games against Atlanta this year, but he hasn’t. (Look at these box scores from his regular season games against the Hawks: 11/7. 2/27. Don't let the 11 rebound game fool you. That was the same game that he allowed Horford to grab 22 rebound.) The fact that he only produced five points and two rebounds last night is inexcusable. The Heat simply need more from the center position. They’re not paying him $21 million to play like Joel Anthony.I think part of the problem stems from when O'Neal starts off the game with a jump shooter's mentality. In other words, for whatever reason, he decides to shoot contested 15-footers, rather than take it to the basket. I’ve noticed that in the games he’s played well, he has attacked the rim early. By starting off aggressively, the defenders react by sagging off a bit, giving him more space to shoot. The center match up is key to this series, and for the Heat to have a chance, it cannot continue to be as one-sided as it was last night.
• The starting lineup. Even though he was having an off night, Beasley (10 points, 10 rebounds, 2 blocks) out-performed Haslem (6 points, 5 rebounds). This was with Beasley missing open looks that he usually converts. For a good portion of the game, the Heat simply didn’t have the offensive firepower to keep pace with the Hawks. Against a team that really packs it in defensively, the Heat needs to have shot makers out there to make the Hawks pay. To put it simply, whenever Haslem shoots open jumpers, the Hawks have won that possession.
• Do the Heat have an answer for Al Horford? Horford had far more of an impact than his stat line suggests (14 points, 9 rebounds, 2 blocks). He was able to aggressively trap Wade and protect the paint, as well as hit open jumpers when O’Neal sagged.
• In order for the Heat to keep it close next game, they need to focus on two fundamental points: Limit turnovers (19 is far too many) and protect the back court in transition (I'm looking at you Chalmers. Wade too). Oh, and start Beasley.
  

Reactions to an intense opening day of the 2009 NBA Playoffs

Originally published in the Miami edition of the Examiner.

I’ll be honest. I didn’t really plan on writing another article so soon after that 4,000-word playoff prediction yesterday, but here I am. After watching the majority of the action yesterday, there’s definitely some points that I had to mention. So let’s begin.

· Derrick Rose looked like Kenny Powers in his prime. Wow. What a way to begin your playoff career. Welcome to the Derrick Rose era everyone. Chris Paul, what up? Ever since he came on the scene as a freshman at Memphis, I’ve been about as big of a Rose fan as anyone. Back when Miami was auditioning D-leaguers for spots in the starting lineup, and in the process of jostling for lottery position, I remember praying that somehow Miami would grab him with the first pick in the draft (No offense, Beasley. You were up there too). In Rose, I saw a guy that despised losing with a passion (he was in tears and inconsolable after his team’s last second loss in the NCAA Championship last year), and someone who also demonstrated excellent lead-by-example leadership skills. All while playing the potentially uncomfortable role of freshman team leader. And that’s without talking about his ridiculous floor vision and athleticism. Now, he’s raising his game for the playoffs just like he did for the NCAA tournament. 36 points in his playoff debut? Clap it up.

Miami would have had Dwyane Wade and Dwyane Wade the sequel, had they been able to draft him. I swear this isn’t in the back of my mind whenever I see him play. I’m fine. Really. Beasley will probably be a top-three power forward in the league in a couple of years. I’m fine. (Every time I watch Rose dominate a game for the Bulls, I feel like the creepy ex-boyfriend/girlfriend of someone that keeps insincerely telling everyone around them that they’re, “happy for the other person now. Even if they're with someone else.” I apologize.)

· All right, I’m back. I still think the Celtics will win in seven, although it will be far from easy. As long as Pierce and Allen don’t play as badly as they did last night in the remaining games, they should be alright.

· Was anyone else watching the Portland-Houston game and wondering who looked older, Oden or Mutombo? I still can’t decide.

· I’m not going to lie, I wasn’t expecting that stinker performance from the Blazers. A couple of times in the telecast, the commentator kept reiterating that Brandon Roy couldn’t do it on his own. At the time he had something like 18 points on 8 for 18 shooting. I remember thinking to myself, “is he really doing all that much for his team?” Being the most talented player on the court doesn’t automatically mean that you’re doing that much to help your team win. While Roy is clearly an incredibly talented player, after watching a decent number of Portland games this year, I feel that he doesn’t dominate a game in the same overwhelming way that LeBron, Wade, Kobe, or even Chris Paul can (I say “even” in regards to Paul, only because I’m thinking more in terms of two guards, and even then I still can’t leave CP3 out).

While Roy can have periods of inspired play, there seems to be stretches in quarters where he just doesn’t impose his will and do something with the ball. In such instances, you can forget he’s even on the floor. He only had two assists last night, and this low number was not because he was creating a ton of missed chances for his stray-shooting teammates. He simply didn’t create that many assist opportunities when he attacked the rim. To be considered a true superstar, and not just a good all star (Yes, there’s different levels of stardom, the terms aren’t interchangeable. To me at least), you have to be able to impact the game in more ways than just scoring. Especially when you have such talented players around you, as Roy does. To put it mildly, he should be averaging a little more than just 5 assists per game.

I’m not saying he doesn’t have it in him. Brandon Roy, it’s on you. And your teammates as well. But mostly you. If they don’t step it up next game, then you have to set them up with easy chances to get them going. Let’s see what you got.

· What did I tell you about Spoelstra? Just as I predicted yesterday, today he told reporters that Haslem would be his starting power forward for game one of the Hawks series. While he didn’t say who would start at small forward, either way I think Haslem should be coming off the bench. Even if Beasley still starts (an unlikely option since he hasn’t played small forward all season), it then means that Wade will have to defend Joe Johnson and risk early foul trouble while wasting energy. I can’t say I’m not disappointed with this news. My verdict is still out on Spoelstra, as he is a rookie coach and should be cut some slack, but I can’t say I’ve been enamored with his performance thus far.

Update!

So as of this week, I am officially writing for the Miami edition of the Examiner, as the Miami Heat Examiner. I will be writing regularly for the Examiner, somewhere around four to five times a week. I'll continue to post articles here, and keep Drive and Kick updated.

Since Examiner columns will be centered on the NBA, specifically the Miami Heat, I look forward to posting pieces on other subjects (other sports, music, films, etc) on this website. It should be fun.

Be sure to check my Examiner page regularly as you'll find pieces there that are exclusive to that site.

As always, comments are welcomed on either site and I enjoy getting feedback.

Thanks for reading. Till next time.

First round picks part two: Who will be left in the West?

Originally published in the Miami edition of The Examiner.


Los Angeles (1) vs. Utah (8)

Potentially interesting series here. While the Lakers seem to be superior to the rest of the West, Utah is a strong eighth seed. I’ve heard some analysts make the case for Utah giving L.A. some problems by pointing to the fact that Utah has already beaten L.A. once this year, and that Kirlenko’s length can bother Kobe.

The case for Kirlenko as Kobe-stopper (or even just Kobe-nuisance) is mostly based on their last game in which he held Kobe to 16 points. Yeah…okay. Any subscribers to this theory must have a pretty serious case of selective memory to disregard the fact that Kobe has also torched the Jazz for 37 and 40 points in the two other contests.
Nevertheless, I think most people agree that Utah has too much talent to be such a low seed. Given how up for grabs the West has been, a couple months back I would have put money on the Jazz sneaking into the second seed, instead, they barely qualified for the playoffs. I guess that’s what happens when you can’t defend anyone.

In a way, this Jazz team reminds me a lot of the so-near-yet-so-far Phoenix teams from a couple seasons back. Deron Williams now, like Steve Nash then, is clearly the leader, best player, and closer on the team. A healthy Carlos Boozer, much like a healthy Amare Stoudamire, is a potent offensive weapon, but a mediocre defender. Plus you can’t forget Ronnie Brewer playing the part of defensive stopper (Raja Bell) and Kirlenko playing the role of the extremely versatile, yet just as moody small forward (Shawn Marion).

Utah definitely has to make some moves this summer. If anything, they should learn from the mistakes the Suns have made and act prudently, rather than reverting a last ditch effort, when the team was already on the decline. I’d say they should let the injury-prone Boozer leave and use the space to resign the more aggressive, better defender in Paul Millsap. Beyond that, Kirlenko’s contract is pretty crippling and I don’t really see them getting a better option at center than Okur for now. I feel like this team is one move away. Give them a legit shot-blocking, defensive center (think a Samuel Dalembert-type) and a dynamic shooting guard or small forward who can create his own shot (see: Rudy Gay) and this team would be very, very dangerous.

I’m looking to the future for this Jazz team because let’s be honest, it’s definitely not happening for them this year. Although they play the Lakers probably as well as any of the other Western teams do (which really isn’t saying much), I don’t see this series going past five, maybe six games. The Lakers length up front tends to give Boozer and Millsap headaches, and really the only advantage the Jazz have is at the point guard position. So unless Deron goes into Magic Johnson mode, the writing is more or less on the wall.

Final verdict:

Lakers in 6.





Denver (2) vs. New Orleans (7)

Probably the Western conference series I am most excited for. While on paper it’s a second seed versus a seventh seed, because the records of the teams from two through eight were so close, in reality this series will be as competitive as a fourth seed against a fifth seed. I see upset potential all over this one.

The point guard battle will be intense with two of the best in the league in Chris Paul and Chauncey Billups going at it. This will be the key to this series. While no one can keep up with the lightning-quick Paul, Billups does have a size and strength advantage in his favor and is generally seen as a solid defensive point guard.

While it will be a fascinating battle of wills, it is a match up that I will ultimately be dominated by Paul. This 32-year-old version of Billups is not the same defensive presence he was five years ago when he led Detroit to a championship. I saw Paul demolish an over the hill Jason Kidd last year, and even if it’s not to the same extent, I’m expecting more of the same this year. Old point guards are like old boxers, the last thing they want is to go against a guy nearly a decade younger and three steps quicker.

Furthermore, I think we will see the true value of James Posey in this series, as he will be able to defend Carmelo Anthony or J.R. Smith effectively. At the same time, I don’t think the Nuggets will be able to contain David West, who seems to be one those players that kick it up a notch when playoff time rolls around.

Outside of Billups and Kenyon Martin, none of these Denver players have entered a series as favorites. Playing with higher expectations is a different ball game and some players simply crack under the pressure (*cough* Eddie Jones. Yeah, I said it). I’m not saying the Nuggets will or won’t, but either way, they will be going against an experienced Hornets team that has been there before and clearly thrives in such situations.

Final verdict:

Hornets in 6.





San Antonio (3) vs. Dallas (6)
Doesn’t it seem like one way or another, every year the Spurs and Mavs end up playing each other in the playoffs? Luckily, because these teams know each other so well, the games have generally been highly competitive and have provided their fair share of buzzer beating finishes. Although the Spurs seem to be showing signs of age throughout, and Ginobli’s absence will surely be felt, I can’t ever rule out the Spurs on an odd numbered year.

Maybe I have too much faith in Popovich’s game planning and Duncan’s ability to come through in the biggest moments, but I find it really difficult to ever pick against them, especially in the first round. I think Roger Mason will pick up some of the offensive slack with Manu out, especially when considering the fact that he has already had two games against Dallas this year when he’s scored over 20 points (23 and 25).

One more thing: I read somewhere that Spurs rookie George Hill has not made Popovich’s playoff rotation, which I think is a shame. Obviously, Pop has seen him play far more up close and frequently than I have, but based on the games I have seen him in (including a game against the Heat, which I had really good tickets for), I would not at all be surprised if at some point in the next few year, he will be considered a top 10 point guard. He has a ridiculous wingspan; seems to be a really quick-footed, solid defender; and already has a pretty decent jump shot. If that sounds a lot like Rajon Rondo (minus the part about having a solid jump shot), then you see where I’m going with this.

Popovich’s eye for talent is amazing, as his “diamond in the rough” draft choices seem to hit far more often than they miss. Greg Popovich, take a bow son. The Miami Heat Examiner salutes you. Alright, now sit down.
Where were we? Oh, right.

Final verdict:

Spurs in 7





Portland (4) vs. Houston (5)

I’m not going to lie, since the playoff match ups were finalized I’ve gone back and forth on picking the winner for this series about a half dozen times already. Thankfully the playoffs start tomorrow or I’d probably end up rewriting this paragraph a couple more times.

This is one of those series where there are so many unknown variables:
How will Portland’s young players react to the playoff atmosphere?
Will Oden hurt himself in the lay up line?
Will Ron Artest go Ron Artest on someone?
Who will Houston go to at the end of games?
Will Yao Ming ever flagrant foul someone that tries to dunk on him? (Not really relevant to this series, but come on man! Don’t let people treat you’re like a 7’6’’dunk prop)

So many questions and I wish knew the answers. There are a lot of things to like about Houston. For starters I think they’re arguably the best defensive team in the league. You know Brandon Roy can’t be too overjoyed about the idea of playing potentially seven games against Shane Battier and Ron Artest. They have solid, if not great, players at almost every position (point guard is still “eh”). Their center is also their best free throw shooter, meaning they don’t have to worry about teams intentionally fouling him instead of giving up a high percentage look. At the same time, their lack of a dominant perimeter scorer at the end of games worries me. If Artest really is that guy, then I don’t see this team going too far.

On the other hand, Portland is one of the most tantalizing teams talent-wise. They have so many different looks they can throw at you, and a handful of players that could each go off for 20-30 points on any given night. More importantly though, they have that go-to-guy at the end of games, and that’s what separates these two teams. With the game on the line, I’d feel far more confident as a Blazers fan knowing that Brandon Roy can turn even a terrible look into a game winner. Which is why…

Final verdict:

Blazers in 7






Thanks for reading. I enjoy receiving all feedback, and if you think your picks will prove to be more accurate than mine, then feel free to leave a comment with your predictions. Should be interesting. Also, check back frequently as I will be writing columns throughout the playoffs including my picks for the next round as soon as those match ups are set. Till next time.

First round predictions part 1: Who will be the beast of the east?

Originally published in the Miami edition of The Examiner


Cleveland (1) vs. Detroit (8)

Alright, let’s give the team with the best record in the league the respect they deserve, and start things off with them. It’s funny how times change and roles are reversed. A couple years back, when Lebron was struggling to get past Detroit, the media jumped at the opportunity to compare his difficulties with Detroit to what Jordan faced with the Bad Boy Pistons of the late 80‘s and early 90’s. Such a comparison was an easy one to make, but far from accurate as the 80’s Pistons makes any subsequent Detroit team look fairly mild mannered.

This Detroit team bears no resemblance to anything even slightly intimidating. While everyone keeps saying that this Pistons team is looking to the future, I still don’t see how that justifies the Billups deal. Since the Pistons were looking to clear salary, why not trade Hamilton instead and keep Stuckey as a shooting guard. I don’t see how a Billups/Stuckey back court isn’t ten times better than anything involving Iverson/Hamilton/Stuckey. The obvious reason is that Stuckey plays more like a shooting guard than a natural point guard.

You also can’t undervalue the importance of Chauncey’s leadership, clearly demonstrated in the way he transformed the Nuggets from a team with about as much chemistry as a sober Real World cast, into the second seed in the West. While I do think this same Pistons team with Billups instead of Hamilton would have fared better during the regular season and probably gotten a higher seed, against Cleveland it wouldn’t really matter either way. So I guess this whole paragraph isn’t exactly relevant to picking the winner of this series. Whatever. You’re welcome.

I think Lebron still has respect for the Pistons (even if it’s is simply from memory and has nothing to do with this current squad), and won’t look past the first round like some top seeds have in the past (I’m looking at you Boston). Respect aside, Lebron will also probably want to crush Detroit in four games, simply to exact revenge on the Pistons one last time for cutting his postseason short a couple years back. I don’ t see the Pistons winning any games in Cleveland, but I can imagine Lebron locking up Stuckey in the last couple minutes of a close game in Detroit, grabbing a road win, and in turn breaking what’s left of Detroit’s spirit.



Final verdict:

Cavs in 5.



Boston (2) vs. Chicago (7)

A series that would be fairly predictable if Boston was anywhere near injury-fee, now becomes a bit more uncertain with the announcement that KG will not only miss this series, but likely the entire postseason as well. From a neutral perspective it’s a shame that KG is injured. He is a captivating presence on the court and raises the intensity level of any series. It’s also particularly disappointing because he actually gives the Celtics a legitimate shot of beating the Cavs and Lakers.

Unfortunately for Boston, not only do they have to play without their vocal leader and former defensive player of the year, they have to do so against arguably the hottest team in the league. Coming into the playoffs, the Bulls have won 9 of their last 12 games behind Derrick Rose’s steady play. The mid season pickup of John Salmons and Brad Miller has been very significant after losing Luol Deng to injury.

(Random thought: If the rumors are true, and Miami did have a chance to land Brad Miller and John Salmons instead of Jermaine O’neal, then I’m not sure Riles made the best decision. Salmons is a proven 20-point scorer, and considering Miami’s offensive woes, I think he could have gone a long way in alleviating some of the offensive weight on Wade’s shoulders. The counter argument is that O’neal’s contract conveniently expires in the all important summer of 2010 (unlike Salmon’s that expires in 2011), which many say, combined with the first round pick from Toronto, was the deciding factor. Fair enough Riley, you want to go after the big names like everyone else.

However, the deal really wouldn’t have hurt Miami that much financially. In fact, had the Heat made the deal, they still would have had Brad Miller ($11.3 million) come off the cap in 2010, while only having to pay Salmons ($6 million) in 2011. That’s Udonis Haslem’s salary. Considering that with Bealsey’s recent emergence, Haslem has somewhat expendable (and many, myself included, would ideally like to see Haslem traded for a quality small forward), I just think acquiring Salmons and Miller would have been a smart choice. Plus it’s not exactly like Jermaine “5-rebounds-a-game” O’neal has been anything close to a dominant inside presence. Oh well, at least Jermaine is scheduled to work with Tim Grover (the man who got Wade into the best shape of his life this past summer), so there’s always the possibility of a miraculous rejuvenation. Just don’t hold your breath.)

Anyway, where was I? Ah yes, the Bulls-Celtics series. I think that while this series seems to have some upset potential, ultimately I see the Celtics holding off this young Bulls team. Part of the reason is that the Celtics have Rajon Rondo, arguably the best defensive point guard in the league right now, to guard Derrick Rose, the catalyst of the Bull’s offense. You had a good run Chicago, and your future is definitely bright, but this is where it ends. It’ll be an interesting series though, one that I’ll make a priority to watch.


Final verdict:

Celtics in 7.




Orlando (3) vs. Philadelphia (6)

The Magic have been an enigma of late. One night they’re dismantling the Cavs, the next week they’re losing crucial games that ultimately gave the second seed to Boston. These playoffs are going to go a long way in how the Magic will be perceived. The team and its fans always seem to believe that they don’t get enough respect from the media and pundits alike. It seems that they are usually regarded as the best team outside of the Celtics, Cavs, and Lakers; just not on that same level the top three. The Magic may have a point. Here’ their chance to change that. They should be able to comfortably win this first round series against the Sixers, and assuming that Boston gets past Chicago, they will be facing a KG-less Celtics team in the second round. At that point it’s very simple, they have to beat the Celtics. Period. If they can’t win that series, I don’t want to hear or read any comments next year about them not getting the proper respect next year, even if they have the best record in the league. So Orlando, it’s on you.

The thing that would worry me if I were a Magic fan, is their lack of a dominant go to guy. At this point Magic fans are probably yelling “ What about DWIGHT HOWARD?!!” at their computers, but I still don’t put him in that category. Let me explain.

Has Howard had dominant performances? Sure.
Is he a load to handle inside? Of course.
But can he carry a team on his back down the stretch of a close game? I don’t think so.

And that is what he will have to do in the playoffs. Smart teams like the Celtics aren’t going to double team him and give open three-point shots to there marksmen. They’re going to single cover him and say “alright, let’s see what you can do.” I’ve seen Detroit do this to them successfully in years past, and teams will continue to do so until he becomes unguardable one on one, and demands the ball every time down the court in a close game like Shaq did.

That is why right now Hedo Turkoglu tends to take the role of closer. He has the size and handle to be a tough cover towards the end of games. The thing that we still don’t know is how healthy his ankle is. If he’s not a hundred percent, it’s going to be even tougher to win close games.

I mention this now, although I’m sure Orlando will look great against the Sixers. Howard won’t have to work defensively against any of the Sixer big men, and the Magic will simply out-shoot them from three.

The Sixers do have an advantage at point guard though, and if they are able to dictate the tempo, then I could see them keeping it close in a couple games.


Final verdict:

Magic in 5



Atlanta (4) vs. Miami (5)

Yeah, I saved the best one for last. Well probably not the “best” one if you want to be annoyingly technical, but certainly the series I’ll be pressing the closest attention to. First off, from a fan’s perspective I think it’s great to see the Heat back in the playoffs at all after last year’s astonishingly terrible performance.

While everyone associated with the Heat must be relieved that they have avoided a first round match up against a division winner, let us keep in mind that Atlanta will not be a walk in the park either. This Hawks team played last year’s eventual champions, the Boston Celtics, about as well as anyone did, taking them to seven games. It’s a team that tends to give the Heat a bit of trouble too.

Wade has been held to 21 points in two of the three games against the Hawks this year and their athletic big men seem to give Beasley and O’neal a bit of trouble. There confidence is also running high after last year’s unexpected success and with home court secured for the first round, I’m sure that they’ll be expecting at least a second round appearance. This series will be a close one, probably going the whole seven games. The Heat are so reliant on its young players that I’m sure this series will mimic their regular season performances. There will be games where they are firing on all cylinders and look dominant (most likely the home games), and games where they can’t get anything going and lose by double digits.

Overall, I think that Miami has two things going for them that both involve Diddy’s favorite model:

1. The recent schedule has been kind to Miami. Because they were able to secure the fifth seed with two games in hand, Dwyane Wade will have had a full week of rest before game one. On top of that, Miami has a couple extra days off in between games. Game one is on Sunday, game two on Wednesday, and then game three is back in Miami on Saturday. These days off gives Wade the best chance to remain fresh, and in turn drastically improves the Heat’s chances in this series.

2. Mr. Wade seems to be in the perfect mindset. In an interview with Stephen A. Smith, Wade mentioned that he plays far better when he is angry and has a chip on his shoulder. Judging by his recent comments that he believes everyone is doubting his team, it’s safe to say that same chip will be Shaq-sized by the time the series begins.

The only thing that gives me cause for concern is Spoelstra and his respect/admiration/fear for team captain, Udonis Haslem. (Well not really fear, but still). Healthy or not, there is no way Haslem should start ahead of Beasley. There’s rumors that Beasley might start at the small forward spot, and that shouldn’t happen either, because then Wade would have to expend precious energy defending Joe Johnson. The only starting lineup that makes sense at this point is: Chalmers, Wade, Moon/Diawara, Beasley, and O’neal. However knowing Spoelstra, I expect him to try Beasley off the bench in the first two games (both of which will likely result in losses) and then MAYBE try starting Beasley in game three. You heard it here first.

Everything considered, I think Dwyane Wade’s experience and clutchness will push Miami over the edge.

Final verdict:

Heat in 7.


Check back soon for my preview of the Western conference. Oh, and while I’m here, my pick for the Finals is Cavs over Lakers in 7. That is all. For now.