Friday, January 2, 2009

Best NBA Players to Build a Team Around: The Top 10

Originally published with Playerspress Sportscaster Network: http://playerpress.com/articles/best-nba-players-to-build-a-team-around-the-top-10


All right, so here’s a hypothetical. Just for the sake of arguing irrelevance, imagine that there was a draft today where every team in the NBA had to pick an entirely new roster and every player in the league was eligible. So the GM with the first pick could choose any player in the NBA today.


There would be one additional criteria factoring into the hypothetical. (My hypothetical, why not, right?) This would be that the GM would have to win a championship within five years or lose their job. I include this component just to ensure that this list will be more reflective of the best talent in the league right now, instead of putting a huge emphasis on age and ending up with silly picks.


One more note, this is not a list of the best fantasy players. This is a list more about what players could generate the most wins and ultimately put the team in the best position to contend for a championship, rather than simply put up big regular season numbers.


Now with that aside let’s move on to the main event, the first ten picks in this mock draft, and consequently a list of the top ten players in the NBA.



10. Derrick Rose

Why so high?


I know what you’re saying:

‘Derrick Rose?!’

‘At the ten spot?!’

‘Isn’t that way too high for a rookie?’


Well, ten years ago those were stronger arguments, but with the rule changes that make it so much more difficult to defend perimeter players, lightning-quick guys such as Rose become nearly unstoppable. Besides, this is no typical rookie we’re talking about. As a point guard two years removed from high school he is putting up numbers (17 points, 6 assists per game on 47 percent shooting.) on par with what guys like Chris Paul (16 points, 7.8 assists per game on 43 percent shooting) and Dwyane Wade (16 points, 4.5 assists per game on 46 percent shooting) did their rookie seasons. I compare Rose to these two players because I see more Wade/ Paul in him than the Paul/ Deron Williams combination that many ‘experts’ point to.


He has an incredible first step and ball control which allow him to get to the basket at will, combined with the athleticism and size to finish at the rim in ways that CP3 can only dream of. You also have to take into account that Derrick is shooting such a high percentage with teams sagging far off him, trying to lure him into a jump shot. Even with this cushion, he is still able to blow past his defender. Once he develops that outside shot (much like D-Wade did), I would not be in the least surprised to see Rose shoot up this list.


He has the talent and personality to be the face of a franchise. That is why if I’m a GM building a team to win a title within the next five years, while there are better players available for this current season, I am confident that he will take that next big step in the next year or two (much like Wade and Paul did in their sophomore seasons). I believe that by his third year in the NBA (at the latest), he will be a top two or three point guard in the league, so with that in mind taking him tenth is a relative steal.


Why so low?

Again, a lot of what I’m saying is based on potential. Obviously I’m assuming he will be phenomenal, but at the same time I’m not going to put him ahead of a guy like Deron Williams who has already proven that he is the second best point guard in the NBA. Nonetheless, I think that even the most diehard Bulls fan wouldn’t have any complaints with their rookie being considered the tenth best pick in the NBA.



9. Deron Williams


Why so high?

Having the second best point guard in the league as your franchise player figures to be a good start especially when you consider how well he matches up with Chris Paul. That bothersome ankle has slowed his start this year, although even with that being said, he is still dishing out nearly 10 assists per game. He has ideal size at his position (6’3, 207 lbs), which means on defense he is able to switch onto some shooting guards, while on the other end he can back down smaller point guards. Even with his size, he is still one of the quickest playmakers and can get to the rim at will. Despite his shooting numbers taking a bit of a dip this year, throughout his career he has been a very solid 3-point shooter. He has all the tools to lead a team for years to come.


Why so low?

Despite all of his good qualities I don’t know if he can carry a team to the Promised Land as the best player on a team. He has achieved some playoff success (leading his team against Houston and Golden State for instance), but these were in series in which his team was favored. I’m not convinced that he can carry a lesser talented team to victory in a series against one of the elite teams (LA, San Antonio, etc.) Until that happens, the ninth spot is as good as it gets for Deron.



8. Chris Bosh


Why so high?

The third biggest name in the 2010 free agent sweepstakes is by no means a consolation prize. This past summer it was clear that Bosh was Coach K’s go-to crunch time big man on the Olympic team. His versatility and combination of size and quickness enable him to defend the other team’s best big man while also being able to contain quick point guards on pick and rolls. This year he has increased his scoring while also grabbing nearly 10 rebounds per game. In the next few years it looks like he could be poised to become the best power forward in the game once Garnett and Duncan eventually give up the title.


Why so low?

With all his scoring ability, I still think there is work to be done on the defensive side of the ball. As a 6’10 power forward, he is averaging less than a block per game, far too low considering his athletic ability. I see him as a player who is going to need another great player alongside him to achieve postseason success. In other words, while Lebron can do it with Mo Williams as the number two option, I think Bosh needs at least another elite player (a Joe Johnson type) to handle some of the crunch time scoring and playmaking. So while Bosh is a great talent, he isn’t a transcendent, ‘put him on my team and we’re as good as in the playoffs’-type just yet. In other words, he might be more John C. Reilly than Will Ferrell, an ideal complimentary piece, but maybe not a headliner.



7. Kevin Garnett


Why so high?

While the numbers are not as staggering as they once were, his impact has never been felt stronger. He is a player that has shown the ability to anchor a defense, and even more impressively, change a team’s identity. A leader in every sense of the word, he backs up his teammates with everything short of a crossbow, while also holding every teammate fully accountable. Not to mention the fact that he might be the best pick and roll defender in recent history. He is a franchise player in that he imposes his identity on the team to the point that he becomes the franchise.


Why so low?

The intangibles are still there, however this is not the 2004 Kevin Garnett who’s going to give you 24 and 14, while playing 40 minutes a night. At this point he can lead a team every night from the emotional standpoint, but I don’t see him still being able to be the go to guy on offense every game for too much longer. One further point in regards to the ongoing KG vs. Duncan debate that has lasted their entire careers.


The Garnett fans argue that we’re now seeing KG attain the same type of success Duncan has experienced because of a stronger supporting cast, and that if the roles were reversed earlier on, Garnett could easily have as many titles. I don’t buy it. All you have to do is look at any close playoff game in which either has been a part of. At the end of the game the Spurs can count on Duncan in the post to get them a score or wide-open shot. By comparison, Garnett has nothing close to a consistent low-post game. Besides the one fall away baseline jumper, there aren’t too many go-to moves.


In years past, this has always haunted his teams in close games. Now that he has Pierce and Allen, this flaw is minimized, but it still does not change the fact that Duncan is far more reliable as the go to guy in a close game.



6. Tim Duncan


Why so high?

The man is a winner, plain and simple. While the characters change, the plot generally remains the same. Pop coaches, Duncan rolls out of bed and puts up a 20/10 while anchoring one of the best defensive team in the league, and the Spurs are contenders. His success speaks for itself, and even at his maturing age, I still know that Duncan will give me a chance to compete for a championship. Considering Duncan’s skill set, he has a game that will age well as it is not based on athleticism. It is not unrealistic to imagine Duncan playing at a high level well into his late 30’s, similar to Karl Malone.


Why so low?

He isn’t getting any younger at 32. Right now his age is not an issue, but the window is closing. Part of the reason he is aging well is that he has a strong supporting cast in San Antonio, with Parker and Ginobli able to amount for a large portion of the offense. So at this stage, if I’m picking him to be my franchise player for the next five years, I better make sure he has a very solid supporting cast around him, more so than earlier in his career.



5. Kobe Bryant


Why so high?

Just by looking at last summer’s Olympic team, it’s clear who still has alpha dog status in the league. He might not have been the best player on the team every game, but it was clear who was the leader. If it was the end of a close game, you better believe Kobe would have to be triple teamed before he was giving up that last shot. And the other players understood. That’s what happens when you have more championships than any of your perimeter peers.


Kobe’s killer instinct is something even ‘King’ James recently said that he wished he had. While his numbers are not as impressive, this is due more to playing with a stacked supporting cast, and having less of a burden to carry on offense. Make no mistake about it; Kobe can still go toe to toe on both ends of the floor with any player in the league.


Why so low?

If I’m a GM that needs a championship within five years, Kobe is very much a front-end investment. In other words in four years time, I think I’d rather have a 27 year-old Lebron, Dwight, or Paul; even a 31 year old Wade, than a 34 year-old Kobe. That aside, Kobe’s less than impressive performance in last year’s finals did not go unnoticed and is ultimately the biggest issue. I was genuinely shocked to see Kobe go out with a whimper instead of guns blazing. While Boston is without question an incredible defensive team, I was waiting for Kobe to go into nonstop attack mode and just keep driving to the basket and at least get to the line. I waited all series.


After watching the rematch against the Celtics this year, I noticed a similar reluctance to take it to the basket. While the win obviously takes precedence, it’s not a good sign that Kobe has become almost strictly a jump shooter against elite defenses. This means that when his shot is on, his team is fine. However when it isn’t, he does not really have a plan B at this point (see last year’s Finals).


Towards the end of his career, Jordan developed his post up moves when he could not get to the basket with the same ease. I haven’t seen Kobe utilize this element of his game enough to where it becomes his preferred location on the floor. Keep in mind that while he is only 30, his body has logged 12 seasons of basketball including deep playoff runs, which already amount to over 1,100 games played. Over the next few years this will become more noticeable



4. Dwight Howard


Why so high?

The man child walked straight out of high school averaging a double-double and hasn’t looked back since. His athletic ability makes the jaws drop, but what’s caught my eye this season is his defense. Coming into this year, he had never averaged more than 2.1 blocks per games. This year? 3.7 swats per contest. To be honest, it’s about time. It’s always nice to see a player who can kiss the rim, commit to protecting the basket with such ferocity. While I do think the next step has to be improving his non-dunking, back to the basket scoring, right now his presence on defense and the boards and young age give him the fourth spot. Let’s hope the best is yet to come.


Why so low?

I know, I know. The classic NBA drafting philosophy is that size should always win out. That thinking should put Howard ahead of Paul right? Well here’s the thing about that. While Howard is the best center in the NBA today (not exactly the hardest thing to do nowadays compared to the early 90’s for instance), I haven’t seen him display the same kind of ability to dominate a playoff series against a formidable opponent that the next three have. If anything, Detroit has shown that if you have the personnel to play him physically and take away his dunk opportunities, it is possible to make Superman look more like Clark Kent.


While I know he is still very young (especially in big man years) and has time to develop a wider array of finely tuned post moves, for now I would not put him in the same class as lets say a young Shaq in regards to this list. While he can dominate defensively and on the glass, I don’t feel too comfortable with him as my number one option on offense down the stretch of a close game.



3. Chris Paul


Why so high?

If I’m building a team around Paul I know three things. He is going to be the best player at his position every night. That at 23, it seems more likely than not that for at least the next five years he will be giving me at least a 20/10 while making everyone around him better. And thirdly, he will be without question the leader of the team and hold other players accountable.


Personally I see CP3 as somewhat of a John Stockon/ Isiah Thomas hybrid. His floor vision and passing ability are comparable to either, while his incredibly efficient shooting touch and league leading thievery remind me of vintage Stockton combined with Isiah’s lighting quickness and ability to take over a game with his own offense if need be.


Why so low?

While he proved last year in the playoffs against Dallas that he can dominate a series with his passing and scoring, I still would not put this scoring ability in the same class with Dwyane and Lebron. His diminutive stature obviously prevents him from being able to finish at the rim with the same capacity. I also feel that to an extent, his success on offense is more predicated on having good shooters with him than those two. (So far New Orleans has generally had better shooters than either Cleveland or Miami).


I know that he is a point guard, and that the responsibility is to run the offense, but again if I’m picking a franchise player, I ideally want a player that can score at will down the stretch of a close game. It’s hardly a condemnation of Chris Paul. He is still by far the best point guard in the league; I’d just rather have these next two guys if I’m my sole focus is a championship.



2. Dwyane Wade


Why so high?

Dwyane hears the doubters. I’m sure I will too when some see Wade at the number two spot. However these critics should also take note of what he’s accomplished the past couple years (Finals MVP, one of the three best players on the US Gold medal team) and more importantly what he is doing now that he is (finally) injury free. Wade has been playing arguably the best basketball of his life for the first part of this season. While I’m not someone that puts too much emphasis on stats, what impresses is me is not that he is leading the league in scoring (I mean even Jerry Stackhouse did it once. Look it up if you don’t believe me), but that that he is doing it so efficiently. Through 29 games,


Wade is shooting just a shade under 49 percent. Forty-nine! Since the 2000-2001 season, only one other player has had close to as high of a shooting percentage while leading the league in scoring (Lebron shooting 48 percent last year). Besides the scoring, Wade is still in the top 10 in assists despite the fact that he is playing with a limited supporting cast on offense.


This year he has committed to defense, not only playing the passing lanes, but also taking the challenge to play better on-ball defense. He is also top 20 in the league in blocked shots as a 6’4 shooting guard. We have all seen how clutch he can be on the biggest stages, taking over games on offense and willing less talented teams to victory. These intangibles and the ability to dominate playoff series are what wins championships and what I want from a franchise player.


Why so low?

The homer in me would love to give him the number one spot and argue about it for months. However the realist in me also knows that his age (he turns 27 this January), size, and proneness to injury give Lebron the edge. (Even before the surgeries he was far from the iron man, having never played a full season including the haunting rib injury in the 05’ conference finals against Detroit).



1. Lebron James


Why so high?

‘King’ James has arguably the highest ceiling of any player in recent NBA history. While I’d say that in regards to skills and intangibles it’s a toss up between him and Wade, there are other factors that swing it in James’ favor. The fact that Lebron is only 23 year old (nearly four years younger than Dwyane) and has been putting up around 27 points, 7 rebounds and 6 assists for what feels like the last four years, combined with his ridiculous size and athleticism more than justify the media frenzy surrounding his 2010 free agency and his spot at the top of this list.


I keep hearing commentators mention that his height and weight are in the 6’9, 275-284 lbs. range rather than what his official bio (6’8, 245 lbs.) lists him. Considering this, it always seems to boggle my mind that a player the size of a heavy college center can soar the way he does; kind of like a taller, heavier, more athletic Charles Barkley. If Lebron ever fine-tunes his post game, then he will quite literally be impossible to guard.


His young age and durability (he only misses the few odds games each year with relatively small injuries) means that if I’m building a team around LBJ, I won’t be worried about this guy physically breaking down anytime soon.




(Others receiving consideration for the list: Paul Pierce, Greg Oden, Al Jefferson, Amare Stoudemire, Joe Johnson, Carmelo Anthony, Kevin Durant.)

No comments: